汇率下跌之后：日元贬值的宏观经济启示 唐镰大辅
在本书中，作者以长期视角审视了本次的日元贬值。他认为日元贬值并非短期国际市场冲击的结果，从国际收支发展阶段论看，日本正在经历“成熟债券国的黄昏”，而这种结构性的变化将长久影响日元的汇率。在本币汇率下降后，输入型通胀、居民资产外逃等负面问题接踵而至。然而本币的贬值绝对不是简单的好与坏能概括的，负责任的政府要做的是将本币贬值的好处惠及全社会，并尽可能避免居民部门大规模抛售本币。在论证了贬值的得失后，作者还讨论了央行财务稳健性与贬值的问题，以及汇率变动下，对于央行系统的教训。对国际资本市场剧变的当下，对中国读者具有启示意义。
从2021年开始，日元大幅贬值，这不是一个短时的市场现象，而是日本外贸、经济增长结构发展遭遇拐点的必然结果。外部的市场现象只不过是这场巨变的催化剂。本书并不是一本探讨日元短期下跌的市场分析书籍，作者希望创作一本“不会因时间而腐朽的著作”，希望通过日元暴跌背后几十年的日本外贸、国债发展历程，探讨国际贸易、汇率、经济增长背后的深刻逻辑，同时还揭示汇率变化对经济和普通人的生活的影响。作者认为，根据金特尔伯格的“国际收支发展阶段论”理论，日本已经完整走完了整个周期，当下正面对着债权国地位崩溃的现实。而对于仍在稳步发展中的中国经济来说，本书讨论的问题极具前瞻性，而人民币短时下跌的现实问题，也与日本当下面临的问题有着相似之处，所以于未来、于当下，都有参考的价值。
唐镰大辅
瑞穗银行首席市场经济学家
1980年出生于东京都。2004年从庆应义塾大学经济系毕业后，进入JETRO。2006年，调职日本经济研究中心。2007年起调任欧盟委员会经济金融总局，作为唯一的日本经济学家参与欧盟经济前景的制定等工作。2008年10月，瑞穗公司银行（现瑞穗银行）入行，在国际市场部下担任首席市场经济学家。
序言
第1章 “成熟债权国”的黄昏 / 1
2021年以来日元独自贬值的背景 / 2
经济增长率的差异来源于金融政策的差异 / 7
对日本稳定供需环境的信任 / 10
从“国际收支发展阶段论”分析结构性变化 / 11
对“成熟债权国”的忧虑 / 16
原材料价格的高涨是“债权耗竭国”的前兆 / 18
对外净资产的结构变化 / 19
基础收支的结构变化 / 23
“世界最大对外净资产国”并不值得日本骄傲 / 26
写一篇“不会过时”的中长期评论
2022年3月以来，俄乌冲突牵动着整个世界的神经，而在日本，日元汇率的持续走低则是媒体报道的热点。笔者的工作就是分析以外汇市场为中心的经济、金融形势，因此这段时间有不少人向我咨询相关问题。2022年的日元走势可谓一部“贬值狂想曲”，而在前一年，即2021年，笔者发表了许多评论，核心观点是日本过于注重疫情防控，正在逐渐被市场疏远。这些文章尤其强调，“2021年秋季以来日元的贬值是我们不希望的，而日元的贬值很可能更进一步，笔者对此表示担忧”。可能是因为之前的这些文章，自从2022年春季日元开始持续走低以来，笔者就收到了几家媒体的邀请，询问笔者该如何解释这次日元的贬值，并想让我就这个问题写一本书。
但是，笔者基本都婉拒了这些邀请。外汇市场的动向是不断变化的，而书中的内容是固定不变的，因此笔者一旦把自己的分析写进书里，这些观点很快就会过时。所以笔者认为，写书有些不妥，书这种媒介，完全不适合承载有关当下市场动向的分析。作为捕捉市场动向的媒体，一周一刊的周刊都不一定适合；而日本主要的几家经济方面的刊物，都设有专家在线论坛。因此，更新频率更低的书籍更不合适。
Shipping Overview:
• Shipping: Standard Domestic Shipping within the United States charges USD 4.99. Standard International Shipping from United Kingdom, Germany and Japan to the United States charges 14.99.
• Order Processing: Please allow 1-2 business days for order processing and preparation before shipment.
• Domestic Shipping: Orders within the U.S. are shipped via USPS or FedEx, depending on the origin of the product. The average transit time is 3-7 business days.
• International Shipping: Currently, we only ship within the USA.
• Tracking Information: Every order is trackable. You will receive a tracking number once your order has been shipped. Products may be shipped from various global fulfillment centers.
Shipping Delays:
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Exclusions: Gift cards, packaging, taxes, and prior purchases do not count toward the minimum purchase requirement for free shipping. This offer is valid only for shipments to U.S. addresses, including Puerto Rico.
Delivery Details:
-
Estimates: Standard shipping within the US typically takes 3-7 business days. These are estimates and not guarantees.
-
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Remote Areas: Shipments to remote areas may incur additional charges or require pickup from a nearby shipping partner’s location.
Shipping Confirmation:
You will receive a shipping confirmation email with a tracking number as soon as your order is dispatched. If you do not receive this email immediately, please be assured that your items will arrive within the estimated delivery window provided at checkout.
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If you need to cancel or modify your order, please contact our customer support immediately.
Issues with Delivery:
If your order shows as delivered but you have not received it, please contact the shipping carrier directly to resolve the issue. For persistent problems, contact our customer service at cs@everymarket.com.
Customer Support:
Our team is available 24/7 to assist you with any questions or concerns regarding your order. We are committed to ensuring a smooth shopping experience.
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Please review our return and refund policies below to ensure a smooth transaction process.
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Packaging: Ensure returned items are well-packaged to avoid damage during transit.
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Tracking: Use a trackable and insured shipping method as we are not liable for items lost or damaged on return.
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Initiating a Return: Contact us at cs@everymarket.com to start your return. We will provide a return shipping label and instructions upon approval. Returns without prior approval will not be accepted.
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Electronic devices after 30 days (e.g., computers, laptops, Kindles)
-
Gift cards, prepaid game cards
-
Perishable goods, live insects, some jewelry, some health and personal care items
-
Customized or personalized products
-
Items with special shipping restrictions
Refund Policy
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Window: Eligible products may be returned within 30 days of delivery for a refund.
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Inspect your order upon arrival and report any defects, damages, or incorrect items immediately to allow us to address the issue. For claims, contact our support team with details of the issue.
Exchange Policy
For the quickest service, return your original item and place a new order for the desired product once your return is accepted.
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Customer Support
Available 24/7 for any questions or assistance needed:
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Email: cs@everymarket.com
在本书中，作者以长期视角审视了本次的日元贬值。他认为日元贬值并非短期国际市场冲击的结果，从国际收支发展阶段论看，日本正在经历“成熟债券国的黄昏”，而这种结构性的变化将长久影响日元的汇率。在本币汇率下降后，输入型通胀、居民资产外逃等负面问题接踵而至。然而本币的贬值绝对不是简单的好与坏能概括的，负责任的政府要做的是将本币贬值的好处惠及全社会，并尽可能避免居民部门大规模抛售本币。在论证了贬值的得失后，作者还讨论了央行财务稳健性与贬值的问题，以及汇率变动下，对于央行系统的教训。对国际资本市场剧变的当下，对中国读者具有启示意义。
从2021年开始，日元大幅贬值，这不是一个短时的市场现象，而是日本外贸、经济增长结构发展遭遇拐点的必然结果。外部的市场现象只不过是这场巨变的催化剂。本书并不是一本探讨日元短期下跌的市场分析书籍，作者希望创作一本“不会因时间而腐朽的著作”，希望通过日元暴跌背后几十年的日本外贸、国债发展历程，探讨国际贸易、汇率、经济增长背后的深刻逻辑，同时还揭示汇率变化对经济和普通人的生活的影响。作者认为，根据金特尔伯格的“国际收支发展阶段论”理论，日本已经完整走完了整个周期，当下正面对着债权国地位崩溃的现实。而对于仍在稳步发展中的中国经济来说，本书讨论的问题极具前瞻性，而人民币短时下跌的现实问题，也与日本当下面临的问题有着相似之处，所以于未来、于当下，都有参考的价值。
唐镰大辅
瑞穗银行首席市场经济学家
1980年出生于东京都。2004年从庆应义塾大学经济系毕业后，进入JETRO。2006年，调职日本经济研究中心。2007年起调任欧盟委员会经济金融总局，作为唯一的日本经济学家参与欧盟经济前景的制定等工作。2008年10月，瑞穗公司银行（现瑞穗银行）入行，在国际市场部下担任首席市场经济学家。
序言
第1章 “成熟债权国”的黄昏 / 1
2021年以来日元独自贬值的背景 / 2
经济增长率的差异来源于金融政策的差异 / 7
对日本稳定供需环境的信任 / 10
从“国际收支发展阶段论”分析结构性变化 / 11
对“成熟债权国”的忧虑 / 16
原材料价格的高涨是“债权耗竭国”的前兆 / 18
对外净资产的结构变化 / 19
基础收支的结构变化 / 23
“世界最大对外净资产国”并不值得日本骄傲 / 26
写一篇“不会过时”的中长期评论
2022年3月以来，俄乌冲突牵动着整个世界的神经，而在日本，日元汇率的持续走低则是媒体报道的热点。笔者的工作就是分析以外汇市场为中心的经济、金融形势，因此这段时间有不少人向我咨询相关问题。2022年的日元走势可谓一部“贬值狂想曲”，而在前一年，即2021年，笔者发表了许多评论，核心观点是日本过于注重疫情防控，正在逐渐被市场疏远。这些文章尤其强调，“2021年秋季以来日元的贬值是我们不希望的，而日元的贬值很可能更进一步，笔者对此表示担忧”。可能是因为之前的这些文章，自从2022年春季日元开始持续走低以来，笔者就收到了几家媒体的邀请，询问笔者该如何解释这次日元的贬值，并想让我就这个问题写一本书。
但是，笔者基本都婉拒了这些邀请。外汇市场的动向是不断变化的，而书中的内容是固定不变的，因此笔者一旦把自己的分析写进书里，这些观点很快就会过时。所以笔者认为，写书有些不妥，书这种媒介，完全不适合承载有关当下市场动向的分析。作为捕捉市场动向的媒体，一周一刊的周刊都不一定适合；而日本主要的几家经济方面的刊物，都设有专家在线论坛。因此，更新频率更低的书籍更不合适。
Shipping Overview:
• Shipping: Standard Domestic Shipping within the United States charges USD 4.99. Standard International Shipping from United Kingdom, Germany and Japan to the United States charges 14.99.
• Order Processing: Please allow 1-2 business days for order processing and preparation before shipment.
• Domestic Shipping: Orders within the U.S. are shipped via USPS or FedEx, depending on the origin of the product. The average transit time is 3-7 business days.
• International Shipping: Currently, we only ship within the USA.
• Tracking Information: Every order is trackable. You will receive a tracking number once your order has been shipped. Products may be shipped from various global fulfillment centers.
Shipping Delays:
Please note that shipping times may vary due to factors beyond our control, such as weather conditions, natural disasters, or peak holiday periods. While we strive to ensure timely delivery, the exact arrival time cannot be guaranteed and is managed by the shipping carrier.
Shipping Options:
-
Standard Delivery: Most orders are shipped within 3-7 business days. Larger items may utilize LTL shipping for safe handling.
-
Handling Time: We handle shipments on business days (Monday - Friday), with a preparation time of 1-2 days.
-
Additional Charges: Some items require additional shipping charges due to their size, weight, or special handling. These charges are specified on the product pages and are not eligible for shipping discounts.
-
Exclusions: Gift cards, packaging, taxes, and prior purchases do not count toward the minimum purchase requirement for free shipping. This offer is valid only for shipments to U.S. addresses, including Puerto Rico.
Delivery Details:
-
Estimates: Standard shipping within the US typically takes 3-7 business days. These are estimates and not guarantees.
-
Shipping Restrictions: We ship to all 50 states, Washington, DC, U.S. territories, and APO/FPO/DPO addresses. Shipping options vary based on the delivery address.
-
Remote Areas: Shipments to remote areas may incur additional charges or require pickup from a nearby shipping partner’s location.
Shipping Confirmation:
You will receive a shipping confirmation email with a tracking number as soon as your order is dispatched. If you do not receive this email immediately, please be assured that your items will arrive within the estimated delivery window provided at checkout.
Order Modifications:
If you need to cancel or modify your order, please contact our customer support immediately.
Issues with Delivery:
If your order shows as delivered but you have not received it, please contact the shipping carrier directly to resolve the issue. For persistent problems, contact our customer service at cs@everymarket.com.
Customer Support:
Our team is available 24/7 to assist you with any questions or concerns regarding your order. We are committed to ensuring a smooth shopping experience.
Return & Refund Policy Overview
Please review our return and refund policies below to ensure a smooth transaction process.
Return Policy
-
Duration: You have 30 days from receiving your item to initiate a return.
-
Condition: Items must be unworn, unwashed, with original tags and packaging intact.
-
Shipping Costs: Customers are responsible for return shipping costs.
-
Packaging: Ensure returned items are well-packaged to avoid damage during transit.
-
Tracking: Use a trackable and insured shipping method as we are not liable for items lost or damaged on return.
-
Initiating a Return: Contact us at cs@everymarket.com to start your return. We will provide a return shipping label and instructions upon approval. Returns without prior approval will not be accepted.
How to Return
-
Method: Returns must be sent back by mail to the address provided in the return instructions.
Return Label
-
Defective Products: Return labels are provided for defective items.
-
Non-Defective Returns: Customers are responsible for obtaining their return shipping label.
Product Conditions for Return
-
Eligible Products: Returns are only accepted for items in new condition.
Nonreturnable Items
Certain items are not eligible for return:
-
Electronic devices after 30 days (e.g., computers, laptops, Kindles)
-
Gift cards, prepaid game cards
-
Perishable goods, live insects, some jewelry, some health and personal care items
-
Customized or personalized products
-
Items with special shipping restrictions
Refund Policy
-
Window: Eligible products may be returned within 30 days of delivery for a refund.
-
Refund Method: Refunds are processed to the original payment method or as store credit for items purchased with gift cards.
-
Processing Time: Refunds are processed within 3-5 business days after we receive the return; please allow additional time for shipping and bank processing.
Claims
Inspect your order upon arrival and report any defects, damages, or incorrect items immediately to allow us to address the issue. For claims, contact our support team with details of the issue.
Exchange Policy
For the quickest service, return your original item and place a new order for the desired product once your return is accepted.
Return Address
EveryMarket Customer Service 2101 E Terra Ln, O'Fallon, MO 63366
Customer Support
Available 24/7 for any questions or assistance needed:
-
Phone: +1 636-312-5925
-
Email: cs@everymarket.com
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